(Publish from Houston Texas USA)
(By: Mashal Rehman)
January is not an off-season for cotton; it is the moment when its future is being decided. While fields may appear idle, crop choices for the coming season are already being locked in across Punjab and Sindh. By March, farmers will have moved on mentally and practically to maize, rice, or sugarcane. If cotton is to survive another season, policy intervention must begin now, not when sowing windows are already closing. Pakistan’s cotton production has declined sharply over the past decade, falling from nearly 14 million bales in FY2015 to around seven million bales in recent seasons (Ministry of National Food Security & Research, 2025). The result is a paradox: a country whose largest export industry depends on cotton now spends billions of dollars importing it. This decline is not solely the result of farmers’ decisions or climate; it reflects years of policy neglect. For growers, cotton has become a high-risk, low-return crop. Input costs have surged certified seed, fertilizers, pesticides and energy are increasingly unaffordable, while market prices remainvolatile and largely unprotected. Unlike competing crops, cotton offers no meaningful minimum support mechanism or comprehensive crop insurance. Faced with uncertainty, farmers are responding rationally by abandoning cotton. Climate stress has worsened the situation. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and increasing humidity in traditional cotton belts have intensified pest pressure, particularly whitefly and pink bollworm. Excessive pesticide uses often exceeding ten sprays per season have raised production costs, damaged beneficial insects and reduced net returns (FAO, 2025). Without effective extension services and integrated pest management, chemical dependence has become a default rather than an exception. Seed governance remains the most critical challenge. Poor-quality and uncertified seed continues to circulate widely, undermining yields and farmer confidence. Public-sector breeding programmers are underfunded, while private seed markets operate with weak regulations. Without reliable, climate-resilient and pest-tolerant varieties, cotton cannot compete with alternative crops, regardless of farmer effort. Cotton acreage has also been eroded by weak enforcement of crop zoning. The unchecked expansion of water-intensive crops into cotton zones has altered microclimates, increased humidity and aggravated pest incidence. This is not merely an agronomic issue; it is a governance failure with economic consequences far beyond the farm. Solutions are practical and well-known. Seed reform must be a national priority: certified seed systems strictly enforced, public breeding programs revitalized and proven varieties fast- tracked through transparent regulatory processes. Farmers also require economic assurance whether through a realistic minimum support price, price insurance, or targeted input subsidies so that cotton becomes a financially viable choice again.
Crop zoning laws must be implemented in letter and spirit. Allowing sugarcane and rice to encroach upon cotton belts is agronomically unsound and economically counterproductive. Pest management strategies must shift from indiscriminate spraying to integrated pest management, supported by functional field-level extension services rather than desk-bound advisories.
Finally, the cotton value chain itself needs correction. Contamination at ginning stages, weak grading standards, and inconsistent quality controls continue to undermine trust in locally produced cotton (Pakistan Standards & Quality Control Authority, 2025). Strengthening quality Enforcement is essential if domestic cotton remains competitive with imports. The cost of inaction is already visible: shrinking acreage, rising imports, and the gradual erosion of a crop that once anchored Pakistan’s rural economy. Cotton does not need short-term fixes or seasonal rhetoric. It needs timely decisions, institutional commitment and policy courage. January still offers a narrow window. If it is missed, cotton’s decline will not be a surprise, it will be a choice.
The writer is a Senior Scientist and Researcher working on Crop Development and Agricultural Policy in Pakistan.
