Powerful El Niño 2026: A Climate Shock to the World, 50 Million People at Risk of Food Crisis

Mian Iftikhar Ahmad

The world is entering a critical climatic phase whose consequences may extend far beyond temperature, rainfall and drought, affecting food supplies, agriculture, water resources, energy, global trade, inflation, public health and the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. The 2026 El Niño is no longer merely a potential climate event; it has established itself in the equatorial Pacific and, according to major global climate institutions, is continuing to strengthen. The latest assessment issued by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, on August 13, 2026, indicates that El Niño is strengthening and that the probability of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27 is above 90 percent. NOAA also indicates that the conditions may continue into the spring of 2027. This development has raised concern among climate scientists, agricultural experts, food agencies, humanitarian organizations and economic research institutions around the world because El Niño is emerging at a time when the planet is already facing unprecedented global warming, drought, extreme heat, wildfires, floods, wars, inflation and growing uncertainty over food security. One of the most alarming projections has come from the United Nations World Food Programme, WFP, which estimates that El Niño could push approximately 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. Some recent international reports have described this figure as approximately 50 million people. This figure does not mean that 50 million people are certain to die; rather, it refers to the possibility that nearly 50 million additional people could enter severe food insecurity compared with the existing global situation, reaching circumstances in which access to adequate food becomes dangerously restricted. This distinction is essential for accurate journalistic interpretation of the warning. According to the World Food Programme, some of the most vulnerable regions include Central and South America, the Caribbean, southern Africa and other areas already affected by poverty, conflict, climate stress and limited food availability. South and Southeast Asia cannot, however, be considered outside the risk zone because El Niño normally alters rainfall patterns across different parts of the world, increasing the possibility of drought in some regions while producing excessive rainfall and flooding in others. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, is also treating the situation as a matter of exceptional importance. In June 2026, FAO used 41 years of historical satellite observations and its Agricultural Stress Index System to examine which parts of the world experienced the greatest impacts on crops and grazing lands from drought during previous strong and very strong El Niño events. According to FAO, El Niño can alter normal rainfall patterns over major agricultural regions, intensify heat, reduce water availability, increase drought conditions and place additional stress on crops. FAO has particularly emphasized that the current El Niño is developing in a world that has already become warmer and more climatically uncertain because of human activities. According to FAO, the combination of extreme heat, El Niño and climate change can create compound risks for crops, livestock, fisheries and agricultural workers. The World Meteorological Organization, WMO, is another key institution closely monitoring the development. In June 2026, WMO estimated an 80 percent probability of El Niño developing during June-August and a 90 percent or higher probability that it would persist through November. By the end of July, WMO’s global climate assessment made clear that a strong El Niño was developing and was expected to strengthen further during August-October 2026. According to WMO, above-normal temperatures are likely across much of the world, while rainfall patterns may also undergo significant changes. Some areas may receive above-normal rainfall, while others could face increasing drought risks. WMO has also highlighted the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which could make weather conditions across South Asia and other regions even more

complex. Research from Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, IRI, further illustrates the scale of the risk. According to the July 2026 IRI ENSO Forecast, the probability of El Niño conditions reached 100 percent from July-September 2026 through January-March 2027, while the probability remained 99 percent for February-April 2027 and 94 percent for March-May 2027. IRI reported that most dynamical models were projecting sea-surface temperature anomalies of more than +2 degrees Celsius in the Niño 3.4 region. Although uncertainty remained regarding the exact peak intensity, the overall scientific consensus strongly favored a powerful El Niño event. IRI’s climate models also indicated a very high likelihood that El Niño could persist into the early spring of 2027. The United Kingdom’s Met Office also announced on June 11, 2026, that El Niño conditions had developed in the equatorial Pacific and that a new phase of the ENSO cycle had begun for 2026. According to the Met Office, El Niño changes the probability of floods, droughts, heatwaves and other weather extremes in different parts of the world. In general, El Niño can increase drought risks in parts of India, Indonesia and Brazil, while increasing the possibility of heavy rainfall and flooding in regions such as Peru. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service is also continuously monitoring the development. According to Copernicus, July 2026 was jointly the second-warmest July on record globally, while sea-surface temperatures across the non-polar oceans reached record levels for the month of July. Copernicus has pointed out that the El Niño developing in the Pacific is an important factor in this broader pattern of exceptional ocean warmth. In July, average global sea-surface temperatures across non-polar oceans reached record levels, and since June 19, multiple days recorded global ocean temperatures at record levels for their respective dates. Copernicus has also highlighted the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing alongside El Niño, potentially adding further complexity to weather patterns during the coming months. One of the most important aspects of this situation is that El Niño should not be understood simply as a heatwave. It is a major change in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific that can influence rainfall, temperature and wind patterns in different regions of the world. Its impact is not uniform. Some regions may experience drought, others increased rainfall, some may face flooding, while others may experience more intense heat. This is why apparently contradictory weather conditions can occur simultaneously in different parts of the world. A similar pattern is already becoming visible in 2026. Europe has already experienced severe heat and drought that have damaged agricultural production. Reports from August 17, 2026, indicate that farmers in several European countries are facing an unprecedented crisis. In France, production of some vegetables has reportedly declined by between 25 and 100 percent, while maize production is also showing significant reductions compared with the previous year. In Italy’s major agricultural Po Valley, drought has affected rice, maize and soybean production. These developments cannot be attributed entirely to El Niño, but global warming, drought and El Niño are creating a climatic background in which their effects can reinforce one another. Reuters, in a special investigation published on August 11, 2026, presented another important dimension of the situation. According to Reuters, the world is better prepared today to cope with a powerful El Niño than it was in the past because agricultural production has expanded over recent decades, global grain inventories are relatively stronger, irrigation systems have improved, drought-resistant crop varieties have been developed, precision agriculture has expanded, and exporters such as Brazil and Russia have become major components of the global food system. India’s rice reserves and China’s wheat stocks could also provide some support to global supplies. This means that it would be incorrect to conclude that the 2026-27 El Niño will inevitably produce a famine comparable to the historic famines of the 1870s. However, Reuters experts have also emphasized that the risk of pressure on food prices, agricultural production and international trade is real, particularly at a time when the world is already facing problems involving wars, fuel, fertilizer and trade routes. Allianz Research, in its July 2026 analysis, has also treated El Niño not simply as a climate event but as a potential economic event. According to Allianz, a normal El Niño could increase global food prices by approximately five percent, while major events such as those of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were associated with evidence of economic losses amounting to trillions of dollars over subsequent years. Allianz notes that agricultural and commodity risks may be particularly significant across Asia, while improved rainfall in parts of Latin America could benefit production of certain commodities. This demonstrates that the global economic impact of El Niño will not be uniform but will vary substantially by geography. ING Think, in its July 2026 research, has similarly emphasized that some fears of a global food crisis may be exaggerated, but the Asia-Pacific region remains particularly sensitive because of its dependence on regional agricultural production. According to ING, the progress of the Indian monsoon, aquaculture conditions across Asia, wildfires, river levels and the timing of rainfall can provide early indications of how severe the practical effects of El Niño may become. One important conclusion from this research is that global food shortages and regional food crises should not be treated as the same phenomenon. The world may have sufficient food in aggregate, but if agricultural production collapses in a particular country or region, import capacity weakens or prices rise sharply, a serious food crisis can still emerge there. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, JRC, has also conducted research into the agricultural effects of El Niño and drought. According to JRC, drought associated with El Niño, combined with already fragile food systems in parts of East Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, could reduce crop production. In East Africa, parts of Kenya, Uganda, Somalia and Ethiopia could face increased food risks where rainfall problems, dry spells and conflict interact. JRC has emphasized that when climate hazards combine with conflict, fuel shortages, market disruptions and weak infrastructure, their humanitarian effects can multiply. ACAPS, an organization monitoring humanitarian crises, has also identified countries likely to face stronger impacts from the 2026-27 El Niño in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, food prices and humanitarian needs. According to ACAPS, the humanitarian consequences of climate hazards cannot be assessed by looking at weather alone. Poverty, economic vulnerability, conflict, displacement, dependence on food imports and local government capacity are also critical factors. This is why a climate event of the same intensity can produce completely different humanitarian outcomes in two different countries. Global food prices are already a major concern. According to the FAO Food Price Index, global food prices reached their highest level in more than three years in July 2026. Wheat, maize, sugar and vegetable oils, among other major commodities, are being affected by extreme heat, drought, wars, energy costs and supply-chain disruptions. Against this background, the arrival of a strong El Niño could place additional pressure on global food prices. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero has also warned that climate and geopolitical factors are increasingly reinforcing one another. The Guardian and the Financial Times have also examined the global economic implications of the 2026 El Niño, reporting that markets for coffee, cocoa, wheat, rice and sugar are already beginning to price in climate-related risks. Previous analyses by international financial institutions suggest that a strong El Niño can produce significant increases in global food prices, while low-income countries are generally more vulnerable because households in those countries spend a larger proportion of their income on food. For Pakistan, this situation is particularly important. Pakistan is a country where agriculture, water, monsoon rainfall, temperature and food prices are closely interconnected. It would not be scientifically correct to describe the impact of El Niño on Pakistan in absolute or certain terms because the country’s weather is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, Arabian Sea temperatures, western disturbances, snowfall, local sea-surface temperatures and the internal dynamics of the monsoon. Nevertheless, the current forecasts from global climate institutions require particular caution across South Asia, including Pakistan. According to the general climate assessment of the Met Office, El Niño can increase the risk of drier conditions across parts of India, while WMO has also highlighted the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Therefore, the real question for Pakistan is not whether El Niño will definitely produce drought or floods, but whether the country’s agriculture and water-management systems are sufficiently prepared for abnormal changes in monsoon rainfall, temperature and water availability. Wheat, rice, cotton, maize, sugarcane, vegetables and fruit production can all be directly affected by extreme heat and water availability. If crop production declines while international food prices rise, Pakistan, which already faces import pressures in several food and agricultural commodities, could experience additional food inflation. Electricity demand, water distribution, agricultural tube wells, reservoirs and urban water supplies could also be affected by changing weather patterns. For Pakistan, the most important requirement is therefore advance planning. If climate institutions provide timely information about possible changes in rainfall and temperature, provincial governments make early decisions regarding water and crops, farmers receive timely guidance on crop selection and irrigation, food reserves are reviewed and vulnerable areas are identified in advance, the damage caused by El Niño can be significantly reduced. Modern climate-risk systems around the world are increasingly based on such anticipatory action. WFP and FAO have also placed anticipatory action, meaning action before a disaster strikes, at the center of their strategy. This approach differs from the traditional humanitarian model in which assistance is delivered only after a crisis has already occurred. Modern systems combine satellite observations, weather forecasts, crop monitoring, food prices, displacement data and local risk indicators to support decisions before conditions deteriorate. Another major question in this entire discussion is climate change. Scientists emphasize that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and should not be described as a direct product of human-caused climate change. However, human-induced global warming has already raised the planet’s baseline temperature. When a powerful El Niño develops against this warmer background, global temperatures can rise further and the impacts of extreme heat, drought, wildfires and ocean warming can become more pronounced in certain regions. Copernicus recorded exceptionally high ocean temperatures during July 2026, while FAO has also emphasized that the current El Niño is developing in a world already made warmer and more uncertain by climate change. Recent scientific and environmental reports are also raising concerns about the Amazon region. During a potential El Niño peak, the Amazon could face severe drought, falling river levels and increased wildfire risks. This is not merely a South American problem because the Amazon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, biodiversity and regional rainfall systems. Similarly, warmer Pacific waters can affect marine ecosystems and fisheries. In Peru, warmer waters have already placed pressure on anchovy fishing, with potential consequences for global fishmeal and fish-oil prices. The business community is also taking the risk seriously. According to a Reuters investigation published in August 2026, references to El Niño among major companies have reached their highest level in several years. Hundreds of companies have mentioned El Niño-related risks in financial reports and discussions with investors. Companies in India and across Asia, particularly those connected to monsoons, agriculture, food, chemicals, energy and supply chains, are reassessing their exposure. This demonstrates that El Niño is no longer simply a subject for climate scientists; it has become an issue for global business and financial planning as well. Taken together, the available research indicates that the 2026 El Niño is neither a sign of the end of the world nor an ordinary seasonal fluctuation. It is a major natural climate event that, when combined with an already warmer planet, high food prices, wars, energy pressures, fertilizer shortages and vulnerable food systems, could generate serious humanitarian and economic risks. NOAA’s greater-than-90-percent probability of a very strong El Niño, IRI’s extremely high probability that El Niño will persist into the early months of 2027, WMO’s concern over a strong El Niño and possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole, FAO’s historical satellite-based agricultural risk assessment, WFP’s warning that approximately 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity, Copernicus’s observations of record ocean warmth, JRC’s regional concerns over drought and crop production, ACAPS’s humanitarian-risk monitoring, Allianz and ING’s economic and commodity research, and Reuters’ assessment that the global food system is better prepared than in the past together provide a balanced picture. The risk is real, but the outcome has not yet been determined. The world has more scientific knowledge, satellites, climate models, improved crop varieties, advanced irrigation systems, global trade networks and early-warning mechanisms than ever before. The real test is how quickly governments and international institutions convert this information into practical decisions. If anticipatory action is taken, the risk of a food crisis affecting 50 million additional people can be reduced. But if drought, flooding, crop losses, conflict, inflation and supply-chain disruptions begin reinforcing one another, the situation could become far more complicated. The 2026 powerful El Niño is therefore not merely a weather story; it is a test of global food security, water management, economic resilience and human security. The coming months will determine whether this El Niño remains an exceptional climate event or becomes one of the defining global climate crises of the 21st century. Science is currently sounding an alarm, but it is also providing the world with an opportunity to act before the greatest risks arrive.