(Writer: Brig Sadiq Rahi, Sitara E Imtiaz (Military), Retired)
Introduction
The recent firing incident near the White House by an Afghan national has once again pushed a long-ignored question to the front pages of global politics: Is the world facing a new wave of insecurity originating from decades of Afghan conflict, radicalization, and unchecked migration?
This week brought a chilling reminder of how the consequences of Afghanistan’s turmoil now threaten global security. In Washington, D.C., an Afghan national allegedly opened fire near the White House, killing one National Guard soldier and seriously wounding another, a brazen act that prompted the U.S. government to immediately freeze all new immigration from Afghanistan and reopen vetting for those already admitted. At nearly the same time, a drone attack launched from Afghan soil struck across the border in Tajikistan, killing three Chinese workers and raising broader fears of regional instability spreading far beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
As governments in Europe and elsewhere begin deporting Afghan refugees, accusing them of posing security or social order risks, global tolerance for Afghanistan-linked migration is rapidly eroding a sharp turn that many Western leaders now frame as a response to “a hellish threat” emerging from decades of war, radicalization, and lawlessness in Afghanistan.
From the First Anglo-Afghan War in the 19th century to the 2021 U.S.–NATO withdrawal, Afghanistan has remained a theatre of unending conflict. These wars have not only shaped Afghan society into a battle-hardened population but have also exported violence, extremism, and instability far beyond its borders.
Today, Afghan-linked networks are resurging from Pakistan to Europe and even inside the United States, raising a debate about refugee policies, security screening, and the global risks of mass migration from a conflict-born society.
1. A Culture Forged in Wars: Generational Violence from Empire to Terrorism
Afghanistan’s sociopolitical structure has been shaped by continuous warfare for almost 200 years:
• Anglo–Afghan Wars (1839–1919)
These conflicts embedded a tribal ethos centered on resistance, revenge, and militarized honor.
• Soviet Invasion (1979–1989)
Millions fled to Pakistan and Iran; Western intelligence and regional actors armed jihadist groups— creating the foundations of modern extremist networks.
• Post–9/11 War on Terror (2001–2021)
- Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries became global nodes for training, indoctrination, and transnational terrorism.
- Afghan society— fragmented by tribe, militia networks, warlords, and religious extremism— internalized violence as a norm rather than an exception.
This culture of perpetual conflict produced multiple generations who knew war more intimately than peace, creating a ready pool for recruitment into extremist organizations worldwide.
2. The Post-Withdrawal Vacuum: A State Without a State
U.S. and NATO forces withdrew in August 2021, leaving behind:
- A power vacuum quickly filled by the Taliban,
- A collapsed formal economy,
- Unmonitored weapons,
- Radicalized factions competing for dominance.
Instead of stabilizing the region, Afghanistan transformed into:
- A sanctuary for TTP,
- A permissive environment for ISIS-K,
- A haven for criminal networks engaged in drug trafficking, smuggling, and illegal migration.
The international community failed to enforce conditions for responsible governance or counterterrorism guarantees. This results: A failed state exporting instability across continents.
3. Legitimacy Crisis of the Taliban Government & Rise of Global Terror Cells
The Taliban regime remains unrecognized by the international community.
This legitimacy crisis has deep implications:
- No accountability for terror groups sheltered inside Afghanistan.
TTP attacks in Pakistan increased 400% after 2021.
- ISIS–K cells expanded operations inside and outside Afghanistan.
Several attacks in Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia have been linked to Afghan-trained militants.
- Afghan nationals have appeared in terror plots in Europe and the U.S.
From smuggling networks to radicalization online, Afghan-linked groups are quietly integrating into global extremist ecosystems.
The West is now witnessing the consequences of its rushed exit, and Pakistan is paying the highest price in blood through targeted attacks by TTP and affiliated groups called Fitnat Ul Khawaraj and Fitana Hindustan operating freely from Afghan soil.
4. Afghan Refugees and the Global Security Challenge
While millions of Afghan refugees are peaceful and hardworking, the uncomfortable reality remains:
- The Afghan refugee footprint in many countries correlates with spikes in crime, extremism, smuggling, and lawlessness.
Examples include:
- Violent crimes in Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan involving undocumented Afghan migrants.
- Human trafficking networks in Greece, Italy, and the Balkans are linked to Afghan groups.
- Drug smuggling routes—from Helmand poppy farms to Europe— run by Afghan narcotics networks.
- Four decades of open-door refugee policies created complex security burdens for host states, many of which lacked the capacity to properly screen, regulate, or deport high-risk individuals.
5.The Washington, DC Firing Incident – A Turning Point
The recent attack near the White House by 29-year-old Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who wounded two U.S. National Guard members, has shaken American security institutions.
Key facts:
The shooting occurred just blocks from the White House, in one of the most secure zones in the world. The attacker was evacuated to the U.S. under Operation Allies Welcome— the program designed to protect Afghan allies after the 2021 withdrawal.
Authorities are probing it as “potential terrorism”.
This incident raises disturbing questions:
- How many individuals evacuated under the rushed U.S. withdrawal were inadequately screened?
- How did an armed Afghan migrant breach such a secure zone?
- Can Western societies absorb tens of thousands of people from a war-radicalized environment without long-term security consequences?
American politics has already erupted:
Republicans are calling it an immigration failure.
- Democrats under pressure to defend humanitarian policies;
Afghan diaspora fearing a backlash.
- What happened in Washington is not an isolated act;
It symbolizes the global tension between humanitarian compassion and national security.
6. The Immigration Question: A Critical Global Dilemma
Countries across the world face a central question:
- Can immigration systems safely absorb large numbers of Afghan nationals from a conflict-radicalized society?
The challenges include:
- Incomplete documents or forged identities
- Lack of biometric records from Afghanistan
- Suspected links to extremist groups
- Radicalized ideologies are forming parallel communities abroad
- Drug trafficking and cross-border smuggling
- Social integration failures in Europe and the U.S.
- Migration experts warn that unvetted entry into Western societies risks internal security breaches, as seen recently in Germany, Austria, the U.S., and the UK.
7. Critical Analysis: The Real Threat to World Peace
Afghan nationals are not inherently dangerous; however, decades of war have produced:
- A population with high weapon familiarity,
- Exposure to extremist ideologies,
- Distrust of state authority,
- A tribal justice mindset,
- Generational trauma,
- Poverty-driven vulnerability to crime and radicalization.
The world’s failure to stabilize Afghanistan created a transnational risk network now spreading across borders.
The core threat emerges from:
- State collapse in Kabul
- Uncontrolled extremist groups
- Mass migration without screening
- Weapon proliferation
- Ideological indoctrination
The combination of these factors has transformed the Afghan issue from a regional concern into a global challenge to peace and stability.
8. Strategic Course of Action: A Roadmap for the International Community
- Enforce Mandatory Security Screening Worldwide
UN-mandated biometric verification for all Afghan migrants.
- Pressure Taliban to Act Against Terror Networks
Conditional recognition linked to verifiable counterterrorism cooperation.
- Support Pakistan’s Counter-Terror Operations
International funding for border fencing, deportation management, and CT infrastructure.
- Create a Global Watchlist for Afghan Extremist Networks
Shared intelligence between the U.S., EU, Pakistan, and regional states.
- Tighten Humanitarian Immigration Policies
Balance compassion with national security; prioritize families, women, and children.
- Develop Regional Safe Zones
Prevent mass migration towards Europe and America by stabilizing the region around Afghanistan.
- Enhance Deradicalization Programs
Target Afghan diaspora communities vulnerable to extremist recruitment.
Conclusion
The firing incident near the White House and drone attack in Tajikistan are not just isolated crimes; they are a wake-up call for the world. Afghanistan’s crises— war culture, radicalization, refugee overflow, and state collapse— now intersect directly with global security, immigration policies, and counterterrorism frameworks.
- The world must rethink its approach:
- Refugees must be protected,
- But national security cannot be compromised,
- Terror groups must be eliminated,
- And Afghanistan cannot be allowed to remain a breeding ground for destabilization.
The balance between humanity and security has become the defining challenge of our time. The world must stand with Pakistan to root out the looming threat and menace of terrorism from the TTP emanating from Afghan soil.
